February 15, 2021 

The recent military escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought the fresh challenges of global politics to daylight. On the one hand, the Russian Federation has emerged from the setbacks of the Soviet past and has taken the path of full rehabilitation as one of the major players of global politics. Russia’s increasing role in international relations can be observed through its modernized military industry and the resource driven economy that is clearly the political tool at the same time.  The 2022 Kazakh unrest has been a proving ground for the Russian military that proved to be very effective in tackling the instability. 

On the other hand, western alliance lacked credibility and unity in standing up to Russia’s revitalizing foreign policy. Threats of the Biden administration to Russia can not be fully executed as the US stance in the world has shrunk significantly in recent years. Full withdrawal of USAF forces from Afghanistan, permanent disputes with Iran and major global powers like China and Russia, additional strong dependence of Germany and France on Russian energy resources, trade and investment are the key factors that might hinder the US deterrent policy towards Russia.

Following the stories around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine there are two things we can deduce. First, Russian Federation will not allow the NATO alliance to move any further eastwards and will use all its might to reduce NATO’s influence over east Europe. Secondly, the issue is that the world does not have an effective mediating tool to stop large scale military conflicts, nor the willingness to include developing small states in it. It is unrealistic to imagine the resolution of the conflict within the “Normandy Format”, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict has seen the deadlock. Therefore Ukraine has become the stage of the dispute for global powers.